As the 2023/2024 Premier League season reaches its climax, Chelsea and Manchester United are in a tight race to secure a spot in European competitions for the next season. Here’s a breakdown of their possible paths to Europe based on the final day’s results.
Chelsea’s Path to Europe
Chelsea’s impressive form late in the season has seen them climb from 11th place in March to a potential top-six finish:
- Europa League Qualification:
- Win against Bournemouth: Chelsea will secure sixth place and qualify for the Europa League if they win.
- Win and Tottenham Lose: If Chelsea wins and Tottenham loses to Sheffield United, Chelsea could even finish fifth, surpassing Tottenham.
- Draw against Bournemouth: A draw could still see Chelsea secure sixth place, but this would depend on Manchester United not winning the FA Cup.
- Lose to Bournemouth: If Chelsea loses and Newcastle wins against Brentford, Chelsea will drop to seventh and would need Manchester City to win the FA Cup to secure a spot in the Conference League.
Newcastle’s Path to Europe
Newcastle has also had a strong finish to the season, putting them in contention for European football:
- Europa League Qualification:
- Win against Brentford and Chelsea Lose: Newcastle can secure sixth place with a win, provided Chelsea loses to Bournemouth.
- Match or Better Manchester United’s Result: If Newcastle betters Manchester United’s result, they will qualify for European competition.
- Conference League Qualification:
- Finish Seventh: If Newcastle finishes seventh, they will qualify for the Conference League provided Manchester City wins the FA Cup.
- Failure to Better Manchester United’s Result: If Newcastle does not better Manchester United’s result, they will finish eighth and miss out on European football altogether.
Manchester United’s Path to Europe
Manchester United has been battling to secure a European spot, with several scenarios in play:
- Europa League Qualification:
- Win against Brighton: A win is crucial to keep their hopes alive. If they overtake Newcastle, they will secure a European spot regardless of the FA Cup outcome.
- Win the FA Cup: If they fail to secure a higher league position, winning the FA Cup will ensure Europa League qualification.
- Conference League Qualification:
- Finish Seventh and Lose FA Cup: If Manchester United finishes seventh and loses the FA Cup, they will qualify for the Conference League.
- Poor Result at Brighton: A poor result could see them finish eighth, necessitating an FA Cup victory to qualify for the Europa League.
Final Day Permutations
- Chelsea: Best-case scenario is finishing fifth with a Tottenham loss, otherwise sixth with a win or draw. Worst-case scenario is finishing seventh and needing Manchester City to win the FA Cup.
- Newcastle: Must better Manchester United’s result and hope for a Chelsea loss to secure sixth. Seventh place requires Manchester City to win the FA Cup for Conference League qualification.
- Manchester United: Must win and overtake Newcastle for a guaranteed spot, or win the FA Cup to ensure Europa League qualification if they finish seventh.
The final day promises high drama as Chelsea, Newcastle, and Manchester United vie for their respective European dreams.
