Nigeria’s public debt may hit N160tn by December – Report

By Omodele Adigun

…Fresh warning as CSL Stockbrokers predicts N9.3tn new borrowing in H2 2025

…Fiscal deficit could widen to 5.8% of GDP amid revenue shortfalls

…Oil production, tax reforms and subsidy savings lag behind targets

Nigeria’s total public debt could balloon to N160.6 trillion by the end of 2025, raising fresh alarms over the country’s fragile fiscal position, according to CSL Stockbrokers Limited.

In its newly released H2 2025 economic outlook, the financial services firm, a subsidiary of FCMB Group Plc, projected that the Federal Government will borrow at least N9.3 trillion more in the second half of the year to finance a widening fiscal deficit. This, the report said, could push Nigeria’s debt-to-GDP ratio to 50.2 per cent based on pre-rebased GDP figures.

“We expect the government to ramp up its borrowing efforts in the second half of the year to bridge the widening fiscal gap. The total public debt could rise to at least N160.6tn by the end of the year,” the report warned.

CSL flagged weak oil revenues, stalled tax reforms and partial subsidy savings remittance by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited as major hurdles to closing the gap. Despite a budgeted deficit of 3.9 per cent of GDP, the firm forecast that it could swell to 5.8 per cent due to underperformance in both oil and non-oil revenue streams.

Nigeria has struggled to meet its oil production target of 2.06 million barrels per day, averaging only 1.67mbpd between January and May 2025. Oil prices also fell short of the $75 per barrel benchmark, averaging $70.82 during the same period.

Efforts to boost non-oil revenue, including an increase in Value Added Tax from 7.5 per cent to 10 per cent, have faced resistance in the National Assembly. Lawmakers have pushed back against the plan, delaying its implementation until 2026 and hampering the government’s ability to raise domestic funds.

The report also highlighted concerns over Nigeria’s debt sustainability. Despite a planned $25 billion medium-term borrowing programme and possible Eurobond refinancing in November, CSL analysts said the country’s fiscal fragility remains unresolved.

Earlier data from the Debt Management Office showed Nigeria’s total debt stood at N149.39 trillion as of March 31, 2025—an increase of N27.72 trillion year-on-year. The persistent rise has been driven by fresh borrowing and naira depreciation, which inflated the local currency value of external loans.

“While the recent GDP rebasing may provide a cosmetic improvement in the debt-to-GDP ratio, it does not address the underlying revenue challenge,” CSL noted.