Inflation rose to 24.2% in March as uncertainty mounts over new tariff

Nigeria’s annual inflation rate rose for the first time since the data was rebased in January, advancing by24.2% in March, compared with 23.2% a month earlier, according to data published by the National Bureau of Statistics on Tuesday. Prices rose 1.1% in the month.

More pain is probably on the cards. A trade war unleashed by US President Donald Trump has triggered a sharp selloff in the price of oil — Nigeria’s main export — and depressed the naira, which will push up import costs.

The currency has declined 4.2% against the dollar since Trump announced a raft of global tariffs on April 2, while oil prices have slipped to about $65 per barrel. Nigeria’s annual budget for this year assumed a crude oil price of $75.

These developments will be on the minds of Central Bank of Nigeria policymakers when they meet May 19-20. Uncertainty on the outlook for the economy and inflation may encourage officials to hold interest rates steady for a second policy meeting in a row at 27.5%.

Alongside external pressures, policymakers will be watching food costs as farmers begin planting at the start of the rainy season — a period of leaner output that might drive up prices.

Nigeria annual food inflation eased to 21.8% in March from 23.5% the month before, while core price growth accelerated to 24.4% from 23%