Will BRICS boom under Trump’s watch?

By Omodele Adigun

BRICS nations will meet virtually next week to coordinate trade retaliation against the US.

Has Donald Trump’s tariff blitz on top emerging economies sparked a stronger alliance among his biggest rivals?

Donald Trump has been accused of inadvertently drawing BRICS nations — a loose grouping of some of the world’s fastest-growing emerging economies — closer together by imposing higher tariffs on them than on other countries.

China, the largest BRICS member, still faces the prospect of a 145% tariff if it can’t cut a deal with Trump, while Brazil and India have been slapped with a 50% rate — half of India’s penalty is for buying discounted Russian oil.

South Africa was given a 30% levy, and even newer members like Egypt could see their tariffs go up, due to their participation in BRICS.

Trump has repeatedly warned during the first seven months of his second term of additional punitive measures against any nation aligning with what he calls “anti-American policies” — a pointed reference to the BRICS’ growing challenge to US global dominance.

Trump gave BRICS a ‘shared incentive’

Former Indian trade official Ajay Srivastava thinks BRICS nations feel “little intimidation” from being singled out for additional penalties by Trump.

He told DW that the tariffs “give BRICS a shared incentive to cut their reliance on the US, even if agendas differ.”

Those additional tariffs have created a common grievance among BRICS members, who are now expanding bilateral trade agreements in national currencies to reduce dependence on the US dollar.

BRICS central banks have also ramped up gold purchases, another signal of their desire to dedollarize.

While Trump has declared “BRICS is dead,” one critic has accused the US president of “strategic malpractice,” arguing that the Republican has turned a loose coalition of countries with vastly different objectives into a more united bloc.

In a recent op-ed for The Washington Post, Max Boot, a foreign policy analyst at the Council on Foreign Relations think tank, said Trump was “diminishing US power by perversely uniting America’s friends with our enemies” — a reference to how Brazil, South Africa and India are aligning more closely with China and Russia.

Xi, Modi, Putin signal BRICS unity after SCO summit

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Tianjin wrapped earlier this week with a notable thaw in relations among BRICS heavyweights.

Chinese President Xi Jinping, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and Russian President Vladimir Putin held their first trilateral talks in six years, marking a diplomatic breakthrough after years of tensions between India and China.

Modi’s visit — his first to China in seven years — was seen as a gesture of pragmatism, with all three leaders emphasizing the need for multipolar cooperation.

The SCO platform allowed them to align on trade, energy and regional security, laying the groundwork for deeper BRICS coordination.

India’s mistrust of China and its longstanding ties with Washington could still hurt ambitions to move the BRICS project forward. India still relies heavily on the US market and technology, with exports to the US totaling $77.5 billion (€66.46 billion) in 2024, versus much lower exports to Russia and China

Brazil also sought to boost bilateral trade with China, its largest trading partner, during a phone call earlier this month between Xi and Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. China accounts for 26% of Brazil’s exports — double that of the US.

A highly symbolic appearance by Putin and Xi during Russia’s Victory Day parade in May underscored the deepening strategic alignment between Moscow and Beijing. More than 90% of bilateral trade between Russia and China is now conducted in yuan and rubles, according to the Kremlin.

South Africa, meanwhile, remains steadfast in its BRICS commitments, signaling its intent to chart its own course despite pressure from Trump.

“I think South Africa is not willing to reverse any of its BRICS commitments, especially around global governance reform, technology, agriculture, academic exchanges and business-to-business exchanges,” Sanusha Naidu, a senior research associate at the South Africa-based Institute for Global Dialogue, told DW.

Having grown from the original four to 10 members — with Saudi Arabia still undecided about joining — BRICS is, however, becoming increasingly fragmented due to diverging national interests, which could further limit its ambitions. It is also becoming more authoritarian.

Former Indian trade official Srivastava, who went on to establish the New Delhi-based Global Trade Research Initiative, said BRICS is “less about perfect unity and more about pragmatic cooperation in trade, finance and supply chains.”

While trade among BRICS nations has been increasing faster than trade between BRICS and G7 countries, much of it is in hydrocarbons.

The intra-BRICS trade is, interestingly, subject to more barriers than those that exist between countries in the Global North, according to research by the Boston Consulting Group.

The consulting firm identified future signs that BRICS trade cooperation was increasing, including a rollback of anti-dumping and other trade restrictions, moves toward a BRICS-wide free trade agreement, unanimous support for reforms to the World Trade Organization and more foreign investment among BRICS nations.

While those ambitions may not materialize immediately, Mihaela Papa, director of research and principal research scientist at the Center for International Studies, expects intra-BRICS trade to take on more urgency.

“We can expect greater political support for new trade initiatives, ‘Buy BRICS’ campaigns and projects like the BRICS grain exchange and the expansion of local currency settlement mechanisms,” Papa told DW.

A Russian-backed proposal for a single BRICS currency to challenge the dollar remains on hold, suggesting a future shaped less by competing financial systems and more by a patchwork of overlapping networks.

Srivastava predicted that the dollar would stay “dominant for years, but parallel settlement systems in yuan, rupee and ruble will grow. This won’t dethrone the dollar,” he said, “but will steadily chip away at its monopoly.”      (DW)